What is HDR Analytics?
Forecasting, data journalism, and model-driven analysis across politics, sports, and weather.
Overview
HDR Analytics is a forecasting and data journalism site focused on politics and elections, sports, and weather. It began as HenryDRiley.com and originally centered on elections and sports before the snowday forecast launched in 2022 and quickly grew in popularity.
HDRanalytics.com hosts the projects, forecasts, and data tools, while news.hdranalytics.com hosts articles and reporting built around those forecasts. The goal is to connect the numbers with clear explanation and accessible analysis.
Why subscribe?
Subscribing lets you know when new reporting and analysis goes live.
Get explanations for what the odds mean and how the models are changing.
Subscribing is completely free and does not lock or gate the main tools.
It is the easiest way to keep up with new forecasts, dashboards, and writeups.
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About Henry
My name is Henry Riley, and I’m a high school senior who has been predicting elections since 2020 and forecasting snowdays for the Madison area since 2022. I’m deeply interested in politics, forecasting, and public-facing analysis.
I compete in Public Forum debate at state and national tournaments, and I have also competed in Extemporaneous Speaking and Radio Speaking for Forensics. I’ve had a website since age 7, so building and experimenting with digital projects has been a constant for a long time.
Questions people ask
No. Unless otherwise stated, the forecasts are strictly data-based, and I do not alter inputs or results to produce outcomes I personally want or expect. If something is opinion-based, like certain article commentary or local political takes, that is disclosed.
Forecasts are probabilistic, so “right” does not mean every high-probability outcome must happen. A 1% chance is still real, and unlikely events do happen. What matters is calibration over time, and I plan to publish more detailed evaluation of past and future models.
The simple answer is time. I’m still in high school, and while I’d love for HDR Analytics to be a full-time project, it is still something I run with limited time and resources.
Once a forecast launches, the way it works generally does not change without disclosure, and often not at all within the same season or cycle. If something changes between years or election cycles, I try to make that clear.