2024 Presidential Forecast (Biden v. Trump)

Jul 24, 2024

Created by Henry Riley
Turnout estimates from ElectionPredictionsOfficial.com

🔃 July 19th update (FINAL UPDATE for the Biden-Trump matchup): New polls, some conducted after the assasination attempt & the VP pick, show Trump gaining on Biden, with Harris over-performing Biden in most swing states.

Trump was favored to win the election.

Chance of winning

The Electoral College was simulated 100,000 times using state forecasts.

Biden: 2 in 9 (22.8% chance)

Trump: 7 in 9 (76.4% chance)

The Electoral College

Average electoral votes and the forecast cartogram. Each hexagon represents one electoral vote.

Biden: 238.7 - Trump: 299.3

The popular vote

Calculated using state margins and ElectionPredictionsOfficial.com's turnout estimates.

Biden: 43.6%

Trump: 46.2%

Others: 10.2%

State forecasts

How the forecast changed

A range of possibilities

What was likely - and what wasn’t - with both the electoral college and popular vote.

In 80% of simulations, Joe Biden won 186 to 292 electoral votes. Donald Trump won 246 to 352 electoral votes.

What was the chance of…

The election being decided by the U.S. House: 0.7%

*This could occur with a 269-269 Electoral College tie, or if a third-party candidates receives an electoral vote, stopping the two major candidates from reaching 270. <br>A House election would likely have elected Trump as President and Harris as VP.

Biden winning the popular vote: 23.3%

Trump winning the popular vote: 76.7%

A Biden Electoral College landslide: 0.3%

A Trump Electoral College landslide: 10.7%

An Electoral College landslide: 11.0%

Biden winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College: 18.0%

Biden winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College: 18.1%

A popular vote/Electoral College split: 36.1%

*The candidate who receives more votes nationally is not elected President

The numbers driving the forecast

Key pieces of data used nationally. (across the whole model)

Days remaining until Election Day (Nov. 5th): 109

Max polling weight: 72% of state forecasts

University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment: 66.0

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 100.4

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index: -33

Forecast economic adjustment: -2.3%

(A positive value boosts Biden in national polling, while a negative value boosts Trump)