March Madness, Warmer Weather, and Polls - What's Next For HDR Analytics
A preview of a few things that will be featured on the site in the coming weeks, and hopes for the long term.
A general note
I want to start by saying that I recognize it’s been a while since I’ve really posted quality articles or new/exciting models or data, and I’m hoping and optimistic that will change as the school year begins to (sort of) wind down. After this week with the SAT/ACT being done, I hope to post a little bit more, and definitely will after AP exams in May. There should be a decent amount to publish in the summer, with a few special U.S. House elections that could (in theory) flip the majority before the 2026 midterms, and both the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s mansions at stake in November. I might make an article about the upcoming WI Supreme Court race if there’s enough to discuss, but polling is essentially non-existent, so there really isn’t much data to operate on.
High School Sports
The season has been over for a bit now for Big Eight hockey teams, but if you’re still curious, please check out the forecast and ratings for the conference below.
I mentioned a long time ago that I hoped to run forecasts for two Big Eight sports for each season (fall, winter, spring), and have not done that thus far. My excuse in the fall was the election, for which the forecast required a ton of manual editing and plugging in of polls, and in the winter I simply didn’t have much time to get things set up for a new sport other than hockey. However, I do want to now run two models for this spring sports season, and I’m thinking a baseball/softball model would be a solid option. Feel free to voice your opinion below if you really want something else.
March Madness
The NCAA basketball tournaments are right around the corner, with Selection Sunday set for next weekend. I will be bringing back the (fairly basic) forecast, and will do my best to post that as soon as possible once the men’s bracket is announced. If I feel I have enough time, I’ll make one for the women’s tournament too.
I’d also like to do something a bit different this year and run a (very) low stakes tournament pool, so I will likely post an ESPN group link where you can submit your entry to the official HDR Analytics bracket challenge. There will be a small cash prize for the winner. (No entry fee is necessary)
Warmer Weather Incoming?
It’s getting fairly close to the point of the year where I’m convinced I will freeze (pun intended) the snow/cold day forecast until next winter, but I’m not quite there yet. We do still have some 30s in the forecast, and maybe flurries, so I’ll probably keep it up for a few weeks.
As for weather coverage into the spring and summer, I’ll run the severe weather dashboard from last year and update that daily, and potentially make a “heat day” forecast if there’s any interest for that, but the odds of getting anywhere close to the temperatures needed for a closure are slim.
Upcoming Elections, And Sad News On Polling
As previously mentioned, there is an upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court Election on April 1st (please vote if you are eligible!). However there’s unlikely to be any credible polling, so unless that changes there won’t be a polling average. However, Virginia and New Jersey hold governor elections in November, and there will be special elections in some U.S. House districts throughout the year, with two currently Republican Florida districts holding their elections on April 1st as well. If we get polls in any of these contests, there will be a polling average posted over at henrydriley.com. (Just go to the HDR Analytics home page and find “Polling Averages” on the left sidebar.
The sad news is that ABC News (Disney) implemented various layoffs this past week, impacting several of their smaller subdivisions, including ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, launched and formerly run by Nate Silver before the 2008 election. While 538’s election model wasn’t something I used much anymore, now that Nate runs his over at the Silver Bulletin (I highly recommend subscribing), their polling page aggregated just about every kind of poll fairly quickly and in an easy to use format, which was what I depended on for gathering polls for my averages, and therefore, our forecasts.
With that now being gone, it seems as though some other sites may try to fill in the gap and run polling aggregation sites, but I’m not sure how much faith to have in that. Basically, the question of if I’ll keep running the averages and election forecasts as easily is a big TBD at the moment. I’ll clarify the situation there once I know more.
That’s all I have to share for now. Check back here next Sunday for the (initial) posting of the March Madness forecast and group link, and keep an eye out for the Big Eight models. Thanks for reading.
Nice!