Previewing Tomorrow's Elections
A critical state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and two special U.S. House elections in Florida are scheduled for Tuesday.
UPDATE:
Another cool tool to follow tonight, Elliott Morris (who led FiveThirtyEight after Nate Silver until ABC/Disney dissolved it and created the Economist’s 2020 Election Forecast) has made a handy spreadsheet with county-by-county benchmarks for the WI race tonight: You can view it here.
In what is typically a dormant period for elections after a new President takes office, and with the 2026 midterms still over a year away, this Tuesday will feature three major elections that could have national ramifications. And despite President Trump specifically scheduling tariffs for Wednesday (April 2nd) because he was “a little superstitious” about implementing them on April Fools Day, these elections are very real. Here are my thoughts, predictions and the (limited) data we have for these races.
Wisconsin has the biggest state election this year (again)
Since this is most likely what you clicked on this article for, I’ll start with my personal best guess on what will happen in our state supreme court race to replace retiring (liberal) justice Ann Walsh Bradley. I believe that Susan Crawford (liberal) will defeat Brad Schimel by a relatively comfortable margin, (if I had to guess, maybe around 4-6 percentage points) based on Democrats’ consistent overperformance in special/off-year elections (those not in presidential/midterm cycles) and the particular dynamics of the race. It’s important to note that turnout/early voting data is probably becoming less indicative, or at least less of an advantage for Democrats, as Republicans now seem to use mail/early voting more than they did in 20201. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel confirms:
“The number of absentee ballots cast is up 54% compared to 2023's Supreme Court race. Those using the in-person early voting option has especially surged.
Conservative-leaning Washington County has seen a massive 165% increase in in-person early voting over 2023 data, while GOP stronghold of Waukesha County also has increased 100%.”
In general, the campaign has been more about, well, the campaign itself, than about any major policies or issues the court may rule on in the near future. Although the Crawford camp has at least attempted to frame the race as a “punch back” at the Trump administration, and a referendum on reproductive rights and abortion, (Wisconsin’s 1849 ban is still contested) the dueling TV ads (which you’re sick of if you live here) are mainly criticizing their opponent’s donors, i.e. Elon Musk and George Soros. Crawford in particular has made Elon Musk a cornerstone of her GOTV message, even calling her opponent “Elon Schimel” in their first and only debate.
I do believe that this race will be a bit closer than the 2023 matchup between Janet Protasiewicz and Dan Kelly, where Protasiewicz won by 11%, a relative landslide in Wisconsin, simply due to renewed GOP enthusiasm after their 2024 electoral success. Keep an eye on Dane Co. and Milwaukee Co. for Democratic turnout, and the WOW counties as well as counties up north for Republican votes. I’m fairly confident we’ll know who won on Tuesday, or at least by early morning Wednesday.
Could Democrats flip two U.S. House seats before 2026?
Short answer, no. Although there are two Republican-held House seats up for grabs in Florida, Democrats are highly unlikely to win both, although one could end up being more competitive than usual. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz vacated Florida’s 1st District when he resigned to (unsuccessfully) become Trump’s Attorney General, and Former Rep. Mike Waltz vacated the 6th District to become Trump’s National Security Advisor. If you are a bit surprised that the name of the National Security Advisor sounds vaguely familiar, just give “Signalgate” a Google. Yeah, that was Mike Waltz who added Atlantic editor Jeff Goldberg to a Signal chat with sensitive (and likely classified) information on U.S. military operations in Yemen last week.
There’s really nothing to imply that the 1st District, which was R+32% in 2024, will be all that competitive. However, the 6th District, which was R+33% in 2024, seems to be more peculiar. The New York Times is reporting that early turnout data is only around R+10%, a sharp drop in support for the GOP if accurate. Now, it would most likely take a miracle for the Democrat, Josh Weil, to pull off a victory here, but if this race is even competitive, it bodes well for congressional Democrats’ chances in 2026. As such, I believe that both Republicans will win in Florida’s special U.S. House elections tomorrow, probably by around 10-15% in the 6th district, and 25-35% in the 1st.
Resources for Election Night
I unfortunately have a prior commitment for most of tomorrow night, and will not be able to post much in terms of live updates here, and certainly can’t run a livestream, but I encourage anyone interested to follow along with returns as they come in using the two links below.
AP News Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Results
AP News Florida's 1st District Special Election Results
AP News Florida's 6th District Special Election Results
I know this wasn’t a super lengthy/detailed article, but there isn’t a whole lot to discuss until we see actual results, so keep an eye on those tomorrow, and if you live in any of the three jurisdictions holding elections, get out and vote!
At the same time, the Sentinel finds that in-person early voting is up 82% and 86% in Dane and Milwaukee counties, respectively.