Surprising Polls in... Nebraska and Washington?

Is Nebraska’s Senate race a sleeper battleground this year?

This article was originally published on May 7th, 2024.

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The New Yorker

After updating our Presidential and Senate nowcasts this weekend, we discovered that the topline odds were surprisingly similar. Republicans had identical odds of winning both the White House and the Senate, at 83%, which our models classify as "Likely". This mirroring of the probabilities is mostly coincidental, but there is also an actual correlation between the two. Our Senate nowcast (and later our forecast) relies on the corresponding Presidential nowcast or forecast to break up 50-50 ties. In a 50-50 senate, where Senate control is determined by the Vice President and thus the President, the models assume Republicans win control 83% of the time. Given that this cycle is likely to end with a 50-50, 51-49, or 52-48 Senate, it makes sense that the Senate odds are close to their presidential counterparts.

With recent polling, I'm starting to see some changes when testing out the models (which will be updated this Sunday), with the presidential model remaining at 83% and the Senate jumping up to 87% for the GOP. But why is this happening? Well, the answer lies in Nebraska. Nebraska is probably the seat you would least expect to be competitive in a statewide election, as Donald Trump won by nearly 20% in 2020, and Nebraska has been reliably red in statewide elections that aren't at the federal level. This is unlike states like Kentucky, where the statewide government (currently run by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear) is more Democratic than federal representation (notably Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell). 

In Nebraska's main Senate election this year (there is also a concurrent special election to replace Ben Sasse, who left to run the University of Florida), things are a bit odd. Incumbent Deb Fischer (R) is deeply unpopular with underwater favorability ratings, and Democrats see an opportunity here. However, there isn't a Democrat running. Instead, Independent Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran and labor union leader, is running against Fischer. Those low favorability ratings may actually matter, because he's doing pretty well in a safe red state.

And that’s exactly what caused this shift in the Senate odds. We only have two polls on this race in Nebraska, one of which was just added this week. The first poll from November 2023 showed Osborn actually leading, 40% to Fischer’s 38%. Like most people, I assumed this was just a fluke, as polls a year out are not very predictive of final results, and voters are likely not paying attention, especially since an incumbent in a deep red state should be doing well. Then we received the poll from late April, which changed the numbers. The first poll is so old that the average only considers the new one, where Fischer is now leading 37% to Osborn’s 33%. The (preliminary) nowcast went from a 70% chance of an Osborn win to an 85% chance of a Fischer win, shifting the balance in the fight for Senate control. However, this poll is still surprising, as a four-point lead (just outside the 3.6% margin of error) is not very significant, and we are less than six months away from Election Day, so Fischer could be facing some challenges. This is definitely a race to watch closely, and I anticipate more polling in the coming months.

In addition to the odds shifting in favor of the GOP, this has another significant impact on the nowcast. Previously, the easiest path to a majority for Republicans was winning 50 seats, with the last being West Virginia, and then the Presidency. Now, their easiest path is taking 49 seats, followed by Nebraska, and then the Presidency, as they are more likely to win the White House than West Virginia. This will change as soon as a new poll comes in, and it is essentially nonsensical because past polling included the incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin, but as of now, he isn't running.

Let's move past Congress and discuss the presidential election. There were some interesting poll developments here as well. Staying with Nebraska, we received our first poll in one of its congressional districts. Nebraska, similar to Maine, awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner, and then one to the winner of each congressional district. Both Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes in 2020, with Biden turning the Omaha-based 2nd District blue for the first time. Nebraska Republicans have been attempting to switch to a statewide, winner-take-all system for obvious reasons, but have been unsuccessful thus far. This means Biden could potentially receive an extra electoral vote from Nebraska, which could be significant if the race is close. However, this poll from the 2nd District indicates otherwise, showing Trump leading by three points (still within the margin-of-error) in both a head-to-head matchup and one that includes third-party candidates. This will shift the district from Biden's favor to Trump's in our current nowcast, altering the calculations (and map) slightly.

Perhaps the most unusual development is in Washington state. Washington has consistently voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1988, and is usually considered a safe state for the party. That is why I am very skeptical of two polls surveying less than 300 people released by The Bullfinch Group (an unrated pollster on 538) that show Trump ahead by one point in a head-to-head matchup, and by five points in a matchup with third parties. Biden still leads in our polling average, but Washington's chances of him winning went from 99% to just 68%, also shifting things in favor of the GOP. However, do not expect this to last. If any states turn red this year, and some certainly will, Washington will not be among them. That is basically a guarantee.

The lesson here is that we are still far from November 5th, and we shouldn't read too much into polling until we reach the party nominating conventions and the later summer months. Things are still unpredictable and likely inaccurate. However, we should continue to monitor the Nebraska Senate race and the 2nd Congressional District in the presidential race, as both could play a significant role in determining who will control the White House and Congress next January. Thank you for reading, and be sure to check back here on Sunday for the updated nowcasts, which will include the discussed changes.