Thoughts on the Memorial-Verona game

Sometimes the most competitive games are also the most boring ones.

The Wildcats force a fumble from Memorial QB Owen Fiedler, leading to a scoop-and-score, the only touchdown in the game. Photo by Jennifer Bonifas.

Defense wins games - but the offense needs to show up too

Both the Spartans and the Wildcats had momentum heading into Friday’s matchup. Both remained undefeated (3-0) and were pretty clearly the best two teams in the Big Eight conference. For Memorial, there was the added momentum from taking down then-#4 Waunakee (a historical upset for the Warriors) and rival Middleton in their last two away games, with a thrilling (but probably too thrilling) back-and-forth contest against the Cardinals last week.

How Memorial ended up winning last week should’ve been a tell for how this game would go. It was ultimately their defense/special teams that saved them, knocking the ball loose from the Middleton kick returner’s hand with under two minutes to go, leading to a game-winning drive and 21-yard field goal from Ty Aparicio. The offense was able to create a solid performance, putting up 38 points overall. But it was a sloppy game for both Middleton and Memorial, with both Owen Fiedler (Memorial) and Joseph Passaglia (Middleton) having multiple turnovers that kept both teams alive throughout the second half. Both could have arguably sealed the game earlier, but costly mistakes prevented that.

And while Middleton would hold on against Janesville Craig in Week 4, those same offensive turnovers cost Memorial the game. The Spartans held Verona to just a 3-0 lead at the start of the game, stopping RB Austin Perez and the Wildcats passing game, which was mostly just quick-out routes and a few fades toward the endzone. On the first drive following Verona’s field goal, a 15-yard run by Memorial’s Kam Parker was called back due to a holding call against the Spartans. After a subsequent incompletion and run of no gain by Parker, Fiedler scrambled out left, threw his hand up as if to throw, and the ball was knocked out with three defenders right there. It was an easy scoop-and-score for the Wildcats and was the last scoring play of the game.

Many seemed to expect a high-scoring, action-packed duel due to the nature of these two teams, and the fact that both were ranked highly statewide. But this game made clear that sometimes the most hard-fought games are the ones with intensive, effective defense. No touchdowns were scored by either offense. It was an exhausting three-quarters of nothing because both defenses played well. Does it make for an entertaining high school game, as I’d personally hope all of them would be? No. But when you compare it to the Middleton-Memorial game, it’s clear to see that the more mistakes made, the higher the score, and the higher the entertainment value. This was the opposite. A few mistakes were made, (of course, the exception being the one that led to a TD) a very low score, and a boring game overall that had about half of both student sections leaving before the final whistle.

What about the forecast?

So I’m going to be completely honest here. The model probably overrated Memorial’s chances a bit. But just a bit. However, I think it’s really interesting to look into why Verona was even favored. If the game were held at Mansfield Stadium instead of Verona, Memorial would’ve been favored with around a 55% chance of winning, as they had the higher CHEsS rating overall. But the built-in adjustment for home-field advantage (I do think this is a real, impactful factor, even if it wasn’t what gave the Wildcats the win) artificially boosts Verona’s rating by 50 for this particular game. So as long as Memorial’s rating was only 49 points (or fewer) higher than Verona’s, Verona would be favored at home. I think it’s entirely plausible that the game could’ve gone differently if the Spartans were at home. For starters, Fiedler seemed off a bit, only throwing straight down the nearest sideline and rarely looking for his receivers across the field or down the middle. And, the game was only won by ten points. A ten-point swing the other way isn’t hard to imagine. So I think the model was pretty realistic here, and of course, if these two teams hypothetically met again, it would give Verona a bigger advantage.

What’s next for these two teams?

Memorial

The Spartans play Madison West at home next week, which should be a fairly easy win. (they’ve got a 63% chance as of now) However, West has been surprisingly ok so far, going 3-1, and winning by over 40 in two of their three wins. Is it enough to overcome Memorial? Probably not. But just as I’d tell you about elections, a 37% chance (just a little higher than Donald Trump’s current odds) can (and does) happen. Plus, it’s high school football. Anything can happen. After West, it’s East for VPM’s Homecoming game, (won’t be remotely close) and two more games that they are favored to win. So they still have a solid chance of finishing with just one loss.

Verona

The Wildcats will have an even easier matchup, playing Madison La Follette (1-3) with a 74% chance of winning. La Follette’s one win was against Madison East, ranked dead last in my ratings, and lost by 20+ points in their other games. The Week 6 game will be a bit more interesting, with Verona facing Middleton, but that’s probably the hardest of their remaining four games.

It should be a smooth ride into the playoffs for both of these teams from here on out. Our model will continue to be updated weekly, so keep an eye on that. Thanks for reading.