2024 Senate Nowcast
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated May 2, 2025 at 09:18 PM
This is the HenryDRiley.com Polling Nowcast for the 2024 U.S. Senate cycle. It only uses the current polling averages at the state level, and assumes that elections are held today. It also doesn't add uncertainty for undecided/third party voters, and thus more aggressive and has less uncertainty, whereas my Forecast (coming soon) will include polls and fundamentals and have more uncertainty and less aggressiveness until Election Day.
Republicans would be likely to win the Senate if elections were today.
Chance of winning
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
Chance of winning
The Senate composition is simulated 100,000 times using state nowcasts. *50-50 ties rely on our Presidential Forecast for determining the majority party.
Democrats
1 in 9
6% chance
Republicans
8 in 9
94% chance
100 of 100,000 Simulations
Democratic Senate
Republican Senate
The 2025 Senate
Average seats and the nowcast map of the expected 2025 Senate composition. *Independent candidates in Maine, Nebraska, Vermont are counted as Democrats in the nowcast.
Democrats
48.3
Republicans
51.7
