2024 Presidential Forecast
2024 Presidential Forecast
The latest odds for the race to the White House.
About the forecast
Created by Henry Riley
Some of the more detailed sections and charts will be paywalled for now, but they will be free to view on Election Day.
Our Biden-Trump forecast has been frozen and is archived here: https://www.hdranalytics.com/p/2024-biden-trump-forecast
🔃 October 13th update: Despite a week passing since our last model run, and decreasing uncertainty, a rough week of polling for Harris makes things a bit closer in the forecast today, as she remains only a slight favorite.
Harris is slightly favored to win the election.
Odds of an upset
A Trump win is about as likely as a goal in an NHL shootout. That may not seem likely, but it happens.
The Electoral College
Average electoral votes and the forecast cartogram. Each hexagon represents one electoral vote.
The popular vote
Calculated using state margins and Election Predictions Official's turnout estimates.
How the forecast has changed
Detailed state-by-state data, additional probabilities and scenarios, and more insights into the forecast are available to paid subscribers.
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