Predicting the 2024 Elections

Forecasts & Predictions

Updated July 22, 2024 at 07:12 PM

A note about our presidential forecast:

Due to the sudden departure of President Biden from the race, we have paused our forecast. It will resume on Monday, August 5th, with new data, presumably a Harris-Trump matchup.

A note about when these models are updated:

Nowcasts/forecasts will be updated at least once or twice a week, usually later in the evening or at night. (I'm no longer committing to certain days, and it will pretty much be whenever I have time.)
There will be a final update for all models on Tuesday, November 5th, before the first polls close.
I do not plan on running any models for the U.S. House, but may do a gubernatorial forecast.

Latest updates

President Biden has ended his re-elcetion campaign, stepping aside after immense internal concerns from Democrats over his fitness as both a candidate and President. Our presidential forecast has paused, and will resume Monday, August 5th, with whomever the Democratic nominee is, presumably Vice President Harris.

Donald Trump formally accepted the GOP nomination at the RNC, choosing Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate.

Trump was nearly killed. Yes, you read that right. In the first major assasination attempt on a President since Reagan in 1981, Trump effectively dodged death by about an inch. Sadly, one rally attendee has died, with others critically injured from gunfire. There is absolutely no way of knowing how this will impact the country, and this election, for the time being.

This week: President Biden stepped aside. Not much that is more important than that to report on.

Forecasts

Modeling the election using both polling and fundamentals, with a greater degree of uncertainty until Election Day on November 5th.

2024 Presidential Forecast

Forecasting the battle for the White House using both polls and fundamentals.

Last Updated: 7/19/24, 10:25 PM

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Nowcasts

Modeling the election using only polls, where the simulations assume the election is today, creating a more aggressive result with less uncertainty.

2024 Senate Nowcast

Simulating the upper chamber of Congress using only polls, assuming elections are held today.

Last Updated: 7/19/24, 10:43 PM