MADISON, WISCONSIN · MMSD
MMSD Snowday Forecast
Today’s closure forecast: 100%
NEXT SCHOOL DAY
Closure forecast
weather closure
Forecast conditions
Forecast history
Forecast history for the next school day.
Forecast history is unavailable.
How each factor changes the odds
Badges show percentage-point contributions to the model before final adjustments and the 0–100% limit. They are not separate chances of a closure.
Values for the next school day. Snow and ice cover 4 PM the prior day through 4 PM on the forecast day. Roads and nearby closures reflect current reports.
- Snow
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- Temperature
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- Feels like
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- Road condition score
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- Peak hourly precipitation
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- Previous weather days
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- Rain
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- Sustained wind
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- Wind gusts
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- Ice
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- Other district closures
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- Big Three closures
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- Model time input
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The Big Three are Verona, Middleton–Cross Plains and Sun Prairie. The model uses peak hourly precipitation as an estimate of snowfall rate.
Snow depth map
Regional snow depth from Windy.
FORECAST TRACK RECORDHow accurate are these forecasts?
MMSD forecast archive · Jan 5–Apr 10, 2026 · 61 recorded school days
- Calls matched the outcome
- 61/61
- Weather closures flagged
- 2/2
- Lower squared error vs. always forecasting 0%
- 91%
Closure odds on the days that stood out
Both recorded closures received higher odds than any day school stayed open.
- Historical Brier score
- 0.00285
The Brier score measures how close forecast probabilities were to what actually happened. For each day, we square the difference between the forecast and the outcome (1 if school closed, 0 if it stayed open), then average those squared errors. It ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 being perfect. For example, an 80% forecast scores 0.04 if school closes and 0.64 if it stays open.